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Pitchers who see the most leverage: Blake Snell, Lance Lynn
Blake Snell is on track to become the top leveraged pitcher in our projections as he takes on the New York Mets tonight. Snell had a disappointing season in his limited appearances. Still, there is reason to believe there is a turnaround ahead of him as his ERA and xERA have quite a noticeable gap between an ERA of 5.22 and an xERA of 3.59. His strikeout production is still present as his strikeout rate approaches 30%, which is what we mostly have to rely on. Longevity is also a concern for Snell, as he has yet to eclipse the sixth inning this season, but he has shown the ability to rack up hasty strikeouts when on his game.
The Mets didn’t have a good July at the plate as they rank in the bottom half of baseball in ISO, wOBA and wRC+, which is no way to swing a bat with the Atlanta Braves who close the gap on them in the NL East. They got the second half of the season off to a bad start last night as Yu Darvish threw a gem at them, so they need a jolt and a quick pace to stay afloat. We know Snell hasn’t been great this year, but the Mets have been pretty lifeless lately. There is definitely a high upside to be had with Snell, given the leverage, and some things should be break his way soon.
Lance Lynn also finds himself near the top of the leverage chart heading into tonight’s game against the Cleveland Guardians. The White Sox were hoping Lynn would be a spark for their pitching team when he returns to the rotation after injury, but he’s been abysmal for them so far. He’s allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts and a drop in batting output. Among those four games was an outing against Cleveland, where he allowed eight earned runs over four innings. No wonder we expected his property to be weak.
Lynn’s xERA and xFIP are between 4.00 and 4.50, which might not be the best numbers, but it certainly gives us something to work with. Cleveland had a pretty productive July, finishing in the top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+. Guardians batters can still get decent contact as they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season, which isn’t ideal for a freefall pitcher who struggles to stack strikeouts . Avoiding Lynn in this match seems like the safe game, but low property and cheap salary are both present if you wanted to take a chance on Lance Lynn’s magical 2021 respawn.