Here we identify the highest leverage trading prototypes you can create based on the current market – this will showcase current ADP data alongside real-life trading examples to highlight why leveraging your position at a given time in the dynasty leagues.
Understand your format
Before you begin, understand that most of the examples and discussions are highly dependent on the league format you are playing in. A quick search of the site archives on DLF is rich in resources on starting, maintaining, and navigating different types of dynasty. leagues. The basics such as position score, starting requirements, in-season/off-season roster size, waiver rules, trade times, cab crews, trade times, etc. are essential to set up a basic model of your strategy even before the league. begin. Player values aren’t sticky and can vary widely across different setups – this is often the hardest part of a new league. Work out exactly what you want to do without even figuring out which players to pick and where to pick them. Ultimately, understanding #Leverage and connecting the dots to where it exists in your league is a task to undertake before moving on to proposing trades.
Leverage (noun) is defined as “the action of a lever or the mechanical advantage obtained by it and the use of credit to improve its speculative capacity”. From the root of the word lever, imagine a rock that is too heavy for you to move with your hands, perhaps due to a limitation in your core strength. You grab a metal shovel, place one end under the rock, and press down on the other end, lifting the rock way too heavy for you to move before. In dynasty terms, it is defined as “using something extra to improve your ability”. Often we associate this “something more” with knowledge not yet obvious and currently undervalued, so we are ready to become more obvious and therefore find a more appropriate value. You can call them “bets”. We take a look at how you can apply this concept to your Dynasty Leagues.
The 80/40 Breakout Trade
Start with a bang. This could be a favorite and an absolute go-to when you find a team in need of additional assets or struggling to build ongoing capital. The basis of the strategy is to take a single asset (represented by 100) and transform it into two assets (represented by 80 and 40). Identify a place in the current Dynasty market where the range of production results does not match the cost. The “80” represents an undervalued asset which, with a slight “upheaval” against the odds, can result in an outcome equal to or more favorable than the “100”. The “40” represents pure advantage or insurance thrown into the trade, often in the form of a future draft pick. For this example, look no further than the ADP running back.
In that trade, we’ve identified Nick Chubb (RB14, 26.1) as a selling candidate for Leonard Fournette (RB30, 27.0) and a mid-first-round pick in 2023. In this case, the value de Fournette fell due to his age and his uneven production throughout his career. Chubb’s value has remained stable since the end of the season given that he signed a contract extension last offseason. Fournette has averaged more points per game than Chubb over his career and after four years of seeing Chubb average just 250 touches per season, the odds of those touches increasing dramatically as he gets older are getting less and less. Additionally, Chubb’s 15.05 PPR points per game over his career would historically rank at RB10 over the past decade – that provides less than three points per game more than the typical RB20. Assuming that’s true, Fournette can match or surpass Chubb’s performance over the same number of years (given their current age) and you get a flexible draft pick that you can use over a longer period with a minimum volatility.
2 for 2 trade
This structure has proven even more effective for many over the years, as it is a bit easier to find business partners. Ultimately, the deal is two assets for two assets, and there’s something fun about getting as many “assets” as you give away. The basis of this strategy is to find two assets, move them for two other assets, and hope that you end up with a higher net worth in the trade. This deal can take the form of players or draft picks, often taking the form of a bet on whether a future pick is ahead or behind the one currently set and closer to being converted. For a closer look, we take a look at WR’s current landscape and production.
In this trade, we move Jaylen Waddle for DJ Moore and take bets that Moore can come close or match Waddle in one of your wide receiver spots. The market views Waddle (WR8) as 1-2 turns more valuable than Moore (WR14) and here we have identified that this can be exploited. We are making this bet in the form of sending out a 2022 1.10 rookie pick in exchange for a 2023 1st. In most cases this trade would not be possible without the addition of the receiver upgrade wide on the other side. In the end, the variance spread is much larger on players of a similar level compared to a pick, already defined as the 1.10 in a weak class compared to a future random pick in a 2023 class strong. This deal could be your choice when the 80/40 break doesn’t work and the other party is adamant about wanting to recover an equal number of assets in any transaction. Finding places where the market has overvalued the certainty of production levels is the best place to choose trade candidates in this format.
Coins for trading dollar bills
A caveat for this discussion is to understand much of what we said at the beginning regarding list size, membership requirements, and transaction rules as being crucial. As the formats get deeper and the size of the ranges expand, the desire to do this type of trading diminishes. More than likely, this deal is best in formats with 11 entries or less and rosters shallow enough that the waiver thread can fill any vacant slots with something of minimal value. That said, the idea of this strategy is exactly what it sounds like – add enough coins to the pot so you can cash them out for a dollar bill. The analogy is perfect because carrying four coins takes up more space and weighs more than a folded dollar bill that you can store anywhere. The same goes for dynasty when you identify a specific asset you want and seek to acquire it by grouping at least three coins together in the trade. For a closer look, we take a look at the current QB landscape and the strategy of building around two elite quarterbacks (see the Superflex 1-2 Combo starter section for more details).
In this trade, we are moving four pieces with the cumulative value slightly greater than or equivalent to a single piece in quarterback Kyler Murray. More than likely, you have identified limits in the assets returned in the trade and have made a “bet” that your predictions turn out to be more correct than not. Ultimately, the team accepting a package swap like this may see the best case scenarios on the assets they’re acquiring and not realize that they’re also giving you two extra roster spots to work with. Not only could you hit the intrinsic value of the upgrade in the spot you targeted for my build, but you also opened up multiple points to now add something of value on the waiver thread. This is not seen in any trade calculator, but it is often another aspect of this type of trade that proves beneficial. Try this offer when you have an already established roster and are targeting teams looking to rebuild or revamp their roster. Use current market values to find the assets and players that might fit the most plausible path to getting a deal done.
You may find yourself reviewing your leagues and perusing the many assessment resources on our website wondering how you can implement these exchanges. In the end, the players involved in the examples or whatever you speculate using the trade analyzer is just that – speculation. The main takeaway from this article is to understand trading strategies and the “why” behind them. We all have our own opinions, predictions and bets on what will happen in NFL football. The next time you find yourself with an idea that’s close to your heart, check out your dynasty lists and incorporate that idea into a #Leverage business offering.