Trevor Megill Should Be Used In Higher Leverage Places – Twins

The Twins’ bullpen has been better than average this year. As a collective unit, they rank seventh in MLB in the WPA bullpen with 1.55 added wins. However, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Joe Smith combined for 3.06 more wins. The rest of the Twins bullpen was -1.51 wins. This is mainly due to Tyler Duffey, who has a WPA of -1.32, which is the fifth worst among all major league relievers in 2022. In the major leagues, you can’t just throw the same three arms of bullpen every night, so the Twins have to find another bullpen arm that they could use in high-leverage situations. Enter Trevor Megill.

Megill, who the Twins signed a minor league contract with just before the lockout, has been good in limited innings this year in the bullpen. In ten and ⅔ innings, Megill allowed just three earned runs on eight hits and four walks. He struck out 13 batters, seven with the fastball and six with the curveball. Megill has some of the best things about the Twins, and there’s data to back that up.

Megill’s fastball averages 97.1 miles per hour, which puts him in the 95th percentile of all major league pitchers. His fastball also has incredible spin, as his fastball spin rate is 2424 rpm, which puts him in the 91st percentile of all pitchers. Using Pitch Profiler, a tool created by Jeremy Maschinoyou can see any major league pitcher and various stats on their pitching mix.

One important metric many people are starting to use to gauge a pitcher’s repertoire is Stuff+. Stuff+ gives a pitcher a rating on the quality of their repertoire compared to the rest of the league. This rating is based on a variety of things such as pitch velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, arm angle, and release extension. Megill has a Stuff+ rating of 108, which puts him in the 78th percentile of all major league pitchers. The average Stuff+ rating is 100, which means Megill’s stuff is 8% better than the league average. Using Maschino’s tool, Megill’s stuff+ rating on his fastball is 108, meaning he has a fasterball above league average in terms of speed and movement.

Megill’s curveball is also an exceptional throw. According to Baseball Savant, Megill’s curveball has seven inches more vertical motion than the league’s average curveball, good for tenth among all major league pitchers who have thrown at least 50 curveballs. According to Pitch Profiler, Megill’s curveball has a 107+ trick rating, which means he’s two throws above the league average.

A pitcher’s tricks can only get him so far. A pitcher can have good stuff and fail to get out. Take the former Twin Brusdar Graterol, which has a stuff+ rating of 116, in the 95th percentile of all pitchers. His lead is 99.9 miles per hour, second among all pitchers. However, this does not lead to success, as Graterol has an ERA of 4.81 and a FIP of 3.84.

In Megill’s limited opportunities, he allowed just three runs in 10 ⅔ innings for a 2.53 ERA, as I noted earlier. Sometimes a pitcher’s success in small samples can be down to luck, but not with Megill. This year, his projected ERA is 2.04, which is fourteenth-best in the league among pitchers who have allowed at least 25 balls in play. On his fastball, Megill allowed an expected batting average of .153 at his opponent, which is the best of the Twins. On curveball, he allowed a tiny expected batting average of .196.

Between having things well above league average and producing very well in the opportunities given to him, Trevor Megill should soon have more opportunities in high leverage situations here, especially as the Twins start playing a tougher schedule.

Which other relievers should receive big innings in stride? What do you think of Trevor Megill? leave a comment or any other questions you may have below, and feel free to start a discussion.

Thanks for reading, and Go twins!