Yankees and Mariners are the best leveragers for Tuesday

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Optimal stack probabilities are calculated using each team’s six best projected hitters.


The New York Yankees team stack finds themselves near the top of the leverage chart again for tonight’s slate as they take on Joe Ryan and the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees have managed to string together back-to-back wins, hoping to finally emerge from their prolonged slump. We’ll give it a few more games, though. It’s no secret how dead their bats have been for the most part, as for the past two weeks they have ranked in the bottom seven in baseball in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They’ve hit a sub-20% clip over the same period, so that’s been a bright spot in their favor recently.

Ryan gets the ball back tonight, hoping to face the August Yankees rather than the team we saw in May. He’s been helpful for the Twins but doesn’t offer anything that could hold the Yankees back if they get hot. We find its expected ERA and FIP at a respectable spot around 4.00, as well as strikeout numbers at a seasonal rate of almost 25%. He’s been vulnerable on power this season, which could have Aaron Judge on the way to home run number 55. Time and time again, we try to convince ourselves that tonight is the night the Yankees spill out and make a statement. Time and time again we are disappointed. This stack will be reasonably priced in a high-leverage spot, so if you’ve been one to continually support the Yankees, there’s no reason to stop tonight.


The Seattle Mariners’ team stack looks to be in a desirable leverage position ahead of their matchup against Johnny Cueto and the Chicago White Sox. The Mariners did not a lot lately to convince us that they can put up a solid performance against a respectable pitcher. They’ve been unproductive for the past two weeks, given their low wOBA and wRC+ rankings, but they’ve shown power with their sixth-best ISO. We see their Barrel% and HardHit% in middling places, so it’s hard to anticipate their output stabilizing comparable to their ISO. Expecting a power drop instead seems like the safest guess.

Cueto is still hanging out with young guys and has managed to give the White Sox a good season so far. His strikeout rate is in the toilet, but he’s not vulnerable to power and sports a sub-3.00 ERA over 20 starts. We see a noticeable increase in his expected ERA to near 4.00, so it’s not a stretch to expect September’s regression on that basis. Plus, who knows the true longevity and durability of his 36-year-old arm this late in the season? We might be reaching a little, but there’s not much to confidently choose a side in this one, as the Mariners and Cueto offer advantages. However, few offenses should be considered minimally possessed against a guy of Cueto’s caliber. The Mariners are not one of them.